Trend Analysis and Prediction of Outpatient and Inpatient Visits for Diabetes Mellitus at RSI Siti Hajar Sidoarjo: A Linear Trend Approach for 2024-2026

Abstract

Introduction: Diabetes Mellitus (DM) is a chronic condition characterized by elevated blood glucose levels, and its prevalence is rising, posing significant challenges for healthcare systems. This study aimed to analyze the trend of outpatient and inpatient visits for DM at RSI Siti Hajar Sidoarjo from 2021 to 2023 and predict future trends for 2024-2026.
Methods: A descriptive research design was employed, using secondary data from patient visits between 2021 and 2023. Linear regression models were applied to forecast the number of outpatient and inpatient visits for the years 2024-2026 based on historical trends. Data analysis involved identifying trends in patient visits and generating predictions for the coming years.
Results: The results indicated a consistent upward trend in outpatient visits, rising from 8,800 in 2021 to 10,818 in 2023, representing a 17.8% increase in the final year. The regression model ????=9601.3+1009X predicted continued growth, with outpatient visits expected to reach 16,637 by 2026, a projected increase of approximately 31.7%. Similarly, inpatient visits showed a significant surge, from 325 in 2021 to 716 in 2023, marking an 84.1% rise. The inpatient regression model ????=476.6+195.5X forecasted an increase to 1,259 visits by 2026. Model validation demonstrated a high degree of accuracy, as the predicted 2023 values for both outpatient and inpatient visits matched the actual data precisely. facilities.
Conclusion: This study provides valuable insights into the future demand for diabetes-related healthcare services at RSI Siti Hajar Sidoarjo. It underscores the importance of expanding both outpatient and inpatient services to accommodate the increasing number of diabetes patients. The study also highlights the need for early diagnosis, integrated care, and health promotion to manage the rising demand effectively. These findings offer a foundation for healthcare administrators to make informed decisions regarding resource allocation and service improvement, ensuring better care for diabetes patients in the coming years.